Five cybersecurity predictions for 2024
2023 was characterized by an evolving array of cyber threats and a significantly broadened spectrum of digital vulnerabilities, pushing organizations to reassess and strengthen their cybersecurity infrastructures. Despite a widespread yearning for a break from the relentless tide of phishing, ransomware, and credential stuffing incidents, cybercriminals are gearing up to use their proven strategies from this period to orchestrate even more intricate and damaging campaigns in 2024. It’s become increasingly imperative for those in the cybersecurity realm to forecast and brace for the predominant challenges and trends that will define the cybersecurity landscape in 2024.
The following are key prognostications intended to serve as vital strategic insights for IT and cybersecurity professionals, aiding them in effectively prioritizing their efforts to navigate and mitigate the rapidly evolving threat landscape
Compromised credentials
The ongoing reliance on traditional usernames and passwords for access control and authentication has perpetuated the issue of compromised credentials. This has been a consistent weak spot, often exploited in cyberattacks. Detailed analyses of data breaches repeatedly pinpoint compromised credentials as a principal attack vector. Intriguingly, a study by the Identity Defined Security Alliance (IDSA) highlights that identity-related cyberattacks are both widespread (with 94% of respondents experiencing such attacks) and largely preventable (with a 99% prevention rate). Despite these alarming statistics, a significant number of organizations remain underprepared, lacking crucial identity-related security measures. This is particularly concerning given the rise of non-human identities stemming from digital transformations, such as in DevOps, cloud computing, and IoT (Internet of Things). Therefore, the expectation for 2024 is a continued emphasis on enhancing identity security, with organizations encouraged to intensify their implementation of Zero Trust models and decrease their dependency on traditional password-based systems.
Ransomware
Ransomware has proven to be a lucrative venture for cybercriminals, who exploit vulnerabilities within organizations to execute devastating attacks. Examples of these include high-profile breaches involving entities like the Kansas Court System, Yamaha Motors, and Western Digital. The emergence of Ransomware-as-a-Service has simplified the process of launching such attacks. Over the past year, ransomware tactics have evolved into complex extortion schemes, involving not just data encryption but also data exfiltration and threats of public disclosure if ransoms aren't paid. This trend was exemplified by the Alphv/BlackCat ransomware group's SEC complaint against MeridianLink. With new SEC disclosure regulations mandating prompt reporting of major cybersecurity incidents, such tactics are expected to gain even more traction. Therefore, enterprises are advised to enhance their ransomware preparedness, with a specific focus on the recovery of endpoints and essential infrastructure like Active Directory.
Hacktivism amidst global conflicts
The intersection of global conflicts and the upcoming 2024 Presidential elections in the United States is expected to create a fertile environment for hacktivism. Hacktivists, often self-identified as defenders of free speech, may seek to disrupt the controlled flow of information during times of conflict or elections by exposing sensitive data or initiating cyberattacks. This could lead to a blurring of lines between state-sponsored hacking and independent hacktivist activities. The role of hacktivists in influencing public opinion through various cyber operations, including the potential use of deepfake technologies, is expected to be significant in 2024.
Vulnerability management
In response to the increasing exploitation of zero-day vulnerabilities by cyber adversaries, the White House's National Cybersecurity Strategy, released in March 2023, has redirected focus towards organizations' responsibility to secure their software. This strategy underscores the importance of comprehensive vulnerability management, which involves identifying, assessing, prioritizing, and mitigating security vulnerabilities. This increased emphasis on liability for independent software vendors is anticipated to drive technological advancements in vulnerability management tools and bring renewed attention to this critical aspect of cybersecurity.
Transformation in security awareness training
The realm of security awareness training is poised for a significant transformation in 2024. With the widespread adoption of generative artificial intelligence in the sphere of cyber threats, traditional training methods are becoming obsolete. Future training programs are expected to integrate continuous breach and attack simulations (BAS) to test and enhance the effectiveness of user-focused controls. These programs will also likely focus on equipping software developers with secure coding practices to preemptively address vulnerabilities.
Conclusion
In summary, the year 2024 emphasizes the crucial need for a delicate balance between robust cybersecurity measures and the resilience to adapt to cyber threats. As IT and security professionals prepare for the challenges ahead, prioritizing the continuous visibility, protection, and management of the entire digital attack surface is paramount. Protecting mission-critical assets and developing the capability to anticipate, withstand, recover from, and adapt to various cyberattacks will remain at the forefront of effective organizational cybersecurity strategies.
